China: Grain and Feed Update

Feed demand in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is expected to recover slightly, with a projected total volume of 286.5 million metric tons (MMT). Corn is expected to dominate feed composition due to low prices, replacing wheat and old stock rice. Corn production is forecast at 293 MMT in MY2024/25, slightly down from previous estimates due to floods but still higher than previous marketing years. Corn imports in MY2024/25 are forecast to drop to 20 MMT. Sorghum and barley imports will remain high in MY2024/25 but slightly lower than record levels, influenced by government pressure to reduce grain imports. Wheat production is expected to rise in MY2024/25, but consumption will decrease due to improved corn quality, limiting wheat substitution in feed. Rice production in MY2024/25 is estimated to decline slightly due to flooding, while rice consumption will decrease, driven by lower feed and food demand.