Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update

Post lowered its 2021/22 forecast for soybean planted area to 40.4 million hectares (ha) and soybean production to 136 million metric tons (MMT). This season sowing began optimistically, with most soybeans planted on time compared to last year. However, extreme weather, with drought in some regions and excessive rain in others, has dampened prospects for a record crop. Post consequently also lowered the 2021/22 soybean export forecast to 88 MMT. Based on strong performance in the 2020/21 season, Post revised up the soybean export estimate to 88.5 MMT, a new record. For the 2021/22 MY, Post adjusted down slightly the soybean processing forecast to 46 MMT, and maintained the 2020/21 crush estimate at 46.5 MMT of soybeans. The crush forecast and estimate is driven by domestic soy oil demand, which will likely decline when the biofuel mandate is reduced to 10 percent in 2022. With China’s strong appetite for Brazilian soybeans, Brazilian soy stocks will hover at less than five percent of the domestic supply.