India: Erratic Southwest Monsoon Concludes

The 2023 southwest monsoon was the most erratic in recent years, with sharp contrasts between excessive rains in July and September and a dry spell in August, with India experiencing below-average rainfall during the El Nino year. Cumulatively, southwest monsoon rainfall was 94 percent of its long period average (LPA). However, the rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country received 101 percent of LPA- a normal amount. Country wide kharif planting area was similar to last year, but crops are at a higher risk of yield loss due to erratic rainfall distribution and lower reservoir storage levels as compared to last year. On September 30, India's Meteorological Department (IMD) published a normal forecast for the upcoming northeast monsoon from October to December, with rainfall at 88-112 percent of LPA.