China: Livestock and Products Semi-annual
Implementation of strict environmental regulations will further constrain China’s sow herd recovery in 2017. Post is decreasing its 2017 starting sow estimate by 12 percent to 38 million head. This reduction will impact the 2017 pig crop, decreasing domestic pork production to 51 million metric tons (MMT). Even at their current record levels, increased imports will only partially offset this production decrease, causing domestic pork prices to continue to rise and leading to a 2.6 MMT drop in overall pork consumption to 52 MMT. But as pork consumption declines, Chinese consumers are expected to consume more beef. Due to stable cattle prices, China’s cattle industry will increase inventory in 2017 to meet rising domestic consumption. However, the gap between domestic production and demand continues to grow, pushing beef imports to a record of nearly 1 million MT.
