Note: This report, initially released on September 1, 2023, has been revised.
CORRECTION: China’s biofuels policies continue to wane as a priority for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Post forecasts PRC fuel ethanol production and consumption at 3.9 billion liters. Production will keep the blend rate slightly lower than 2022 levels as there will be less blending in some areas, high feedstock prices, and limited imports constrained by high tariffs. PRC 2023 fuel ethanol production is forecast to increase 96 million liters from the previous year due to a period of profitability early in the year. Biomass-based diesel (BBD) imports in 2023 are up 40 percent from 2022 - more than 90 percent are palm oil biodiesel from Indonesia and Malaysia. PRC exports again surged due to EU demand as the country replaced Argentina as the primary exporter of FAME to the EU in the fourth quarter of 2022. NOTE: Corrections include amending the conversion ratio for SAF and removing an unintentional, mistaken reference to a private firm and allegations of mislabeled product trade in the region.