Cotton 2019 Export Highlights
Top 10 Export Markets for U.S. Cotton(values in million USD) |
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| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | % Change 2018-2019 |
5-Year Average 2015-2019 |
| Vietnam | 623 | 788 | 1,056 | 1,312 | 1,426 | 9% | 1,041 |
| China | 859 | 554 | 978 | 924 | 708 | -23% | 805 |
| Turkey | 463 | 495 | 730 | 681 | 649 | -5% | 604 |
| Pakistan | 124 | 202 | 297 | 612 | 618 | 1% | 371 |
| India | 115 | 251 | 435 | 333 | 600 | 80% | 347 |
| Indonesia | 295 | 346 | 498 | 600 | 419 | -30% | 432 |
| Bangladesh | 69 | 95 | 284 | 387 | 390 | 1% | 245 |
| Mexico | 332 | 340 | 404 | 372 | 288 | -23% | 347 |
| Thailand | 173 | 164 | 214 | 273 | 214 | -22% | 208 |
| South Korea | 241 | 165 | 248 | 231 | 167 | -28% | 210 |
| All Others | 608 | 569 | 702 | 832 | 675 | -19% | 677 |
| Total Exported | 3,902 | 3,967 | 5,845 | 6,557 | 6,153 | -6% | 5,285 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data - BICO HS-10
Highlights
U.S. export value was down six percent ($400 million) in 2019 but remained the fourth-highest export value on record. Record exports were realized to Vietnam, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh; however, exports to Mexico were down sharply on higher domestic production and stagnant demand. The U.S.-China trade dispute limited U.S. exports to the country despite surging import demand. Global consumption in 2019 continued to weaken amid sluggish economic growth in major markets and lower relative prices for competing fibers such as polyester. World and U.S. prices trended lower in 2019, dampening spinners’ margins and, ultimately, cotton demand.
Drivers
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Slowing global economic growth contributed to the decrease in demand for cotton/textiles.
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India’s support price program inhibited domestic exports by inflating domestic prices. High domestic prices drove mills and merchants to import cotton.
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Increased competition from Brazil dampened U.S. exports as Brazil expanded export capacity and shipped record volumes year-round, including during months of the season when they typically don’t export.
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U.S.-China trade actions spurred Vietnam demand for U.S. cotton.
Global Cotton Exports
U.S. cotton exports are forecast to remain steady at 16.5 million bales for the marketing year ending July of 2021. Global trade volume is expected to increase, largely due to an uptick from China, the largest importer, where import demand is projected to grow for the foreseeable future.
The Phase One U.S.–China Agreement offers the potential to significantly increase exports to China, albeit China must remove retaliatory tariffs or make an effective system of waivers to allow U.S. cotton to enter without additional duties.
Continued strong competition from key competitors such as Brazil is expected to dampen U.S. exports globally. Brazil’s projected crop in the coming months is only down slightly from last year’s third consecutive record crop. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have an immediate impact on demand as global GDP growth slows, but cotton exports are expected to recover quickly as economies recover.