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FAS Tokyo projects Japan’s overall demand for feed grain to remain robust in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as livestock production expands. FAS Tokyo anticipates corn imports to decrease in MY2021/22 and MY2022/23 as feed millers increase the ratio of low-cost rice at the expense of corn in compound feed.

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2020/21 corn imports will be 15.5 million tons, down 2.4 percent from the previous year due to high global corn prices.

This report is one in a series of product briefs highlighting the tariff benefits for specific commodities and products from Year 3 (2021) to Year 5 (2023) of the agreement.

FAS Tokyo estimates stable feed demand in MY2020/21, but projects a slight shift from corn to rice, wheat, and barley in compound feed rations due to high corn prices.

Feed production is projected to increase slightly, reflecting stable livestock production and a slight increase in poultry production.

Stable demand for feed and relative price competitiveness are forecast to maintain Japan’s robust demand for corn in MY2020/21.

This is one in a series of reports providing concise overviews of how the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which entered into force on January 1, 2020, affects certain product groups.

Rice consumption continues to decline due to a shrinking population and reductions in per capita consumption.

Demand for feed ingredients in Japan remains strong in MY2018/19 as livestock inventories have seen little change.

Typhoons, heavy rains and prolonged high temperatures in the summer of 2018 are expected to negatively affect both the yield and quality of rice and wheat produced in Japan.

High prices for Japanese table rice led to Japan’s full utilization of the simultaneous buy and sell quota (100,000 MT), and are expected to lead to continued opportunities in the coming year.

Given competitive prices for imported feed grains (particularly for corn) and DDGS, Japanese demand is expected to remain strong in 2017/18, with corn imports again forecast to total 15.2 million MT.