Browse Data and Analysis

Marketing year (MY) 23/24 cotton production is lowered to 5.9 million metric tons (MMT) on reduced planted area and raised for MY 22/23 to 6.68 MMT on higher planted area and reported volumes of classified Xinjiang cotton.

The 2022 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world during the 2022 calendar year.

On April 14, 2023, the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) published Announcement No. 369 on Implementation Measures for Improving the Target Price Policy for Cotton.

Marketing year (MY) 23/24 cotton imports are forecast at 1.8 million metric tons (MMT) on higher domestic demand for textile and apparel products and higher spinning demand.

U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year. Significantly higher agricultural prices and resilient demand helped drive exports above the previous year’s record despite lower volumes for most products.

Estimated cotton imports for marketing year (MY) 22/23 are reduced to 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) on high carry-in stocks, higher domestic production, weak consumption, and uncertainty concerning the issuance of additional import quota. Consumption is reduced to 7.7 MMT in both MY 21/22 and MY 22/23 on restrictive zero-COVID polices and slower economic growth that has resulted in lower demand for textile and apparel products.

On November 14, 2022, China notified a revised draft for the “National Standard of the People's Republic of China (PRC) Cotton—Saw Ginned Upland Cotton” to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) Committee. The PRC requested WTO members submit comments in 60 days. This standard will replace GB 1103.1 - 2012 Cotton - Part 1: Saw Ginned Upland Cotton.

Estimated cotton imports for marketing year (MY) 22/23 are reduced to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) on high carry-in stocks and higher domestic production. MY 22/23 production is increased to 6 MMT on higher yields in Xinjiang. China’s slowing economy and weak domestic demand reduced cotton use in MY 21/22 to 8 MMT and lowered imports to 1.76 MMT.

A recent industry survey in one of China’s leading provinces for textile and apparel manufacturing highlights the negative impact of the PRC’s zero-tolerance COVID policy in the world’s largest cotton market and area economy. According to survey results, production estimates are down, costs are higher, and deliveries are delayed.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

Higher downstream demand for textiles and garments and reduced cotton yarn imports are expected to raise spinning demand for cotton in marketing year (MY) 22/23, lifting cotton imports to an estimated 2.3 million metric tons (MMT).

Post expects China's MY 2021/22 cotton imports and production to decline from the previous forecast.