Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update

Post revises down its Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 production estimates to 150 million metric tons (MMT) due to (i) the recent floods in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul and (ii) lower yields across several states. Amidst lower soybean output and solid gross crushing margins, Post reduces export estimates to 94 MMT while increases crush volumes to 55.1 MMT. Different local forecasting agencies have revised up Brazil’s MY 2023/24 soybean area based on new geoprocessing data and satellite imagery. Similarly, Post revises up its current MY area estimates to 45.8 million ha. For outyear, Post revises up area and production forecasts to 46.3 million ha and 160 MMT respectively, with national yields at 3,456 kg/ha. Post also increases production of soybean meal and oil due to higher crushing, with soybean oil industrial consumption (for biodiesel) sustaining growth in MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.