U.S.-Canada Quarterly Grain Trade Consultations, November 2001
U.S. and Canadian officials met on November 20, 2001, for grain trade consultations as provided for under the Record of Understanding and Action Plan agreed to between Canada and the United States. Since January 1999, the two sides meet quarterly to exchange information on grain market developments and prospects.
Officials reviewed the global market situation, including bilateral grain trade flows, projections for the current year, current issues of concern and discussed a number of other measures that could affect trade. Each participant's projections are based on current and anticipated market conditions and may be revised as markets evolve.
Current projections for 2001-02 indicate that
overall Canadian wheat exports will decline reflecting the smaller crop hit by
drought in Western Canada and reduced seeded area in Ontario. Exports of wheat
to the U.S., however, may rise marginally from the previous year as a result of
smaller U.S. wheat supplies and the very high quality of the 2001-02 Canadian
harvest. Canadian durum shipments to the U.S. are projected to increase in
2001-02 after two years of reduced shipments. Although the 2001-02 Canadian
durum crop is down sharply, carryover stocks from 2000-01 can be blended with
the very high protein durum from the 2001 harvest to ensure sufficient supplies.
Canadian barley exports, mainly malting quality, are projected to be smaller
than the 2000-01 level due to reduced production. U.S. corn exports to Canada
are expected to equal or exceed the record level
s of 2000-01.
Feed grain demand in Western Canada will draw in large imports of U.S. corn as
supplies of other grains for feed are down significantly from the previous year.
U.S. corn exports to eastern Canada will remain large but are not expected to
reach last year's record levels (tables attached*).
The projections which were discussed are each participant's views of how markets are likely to evolve and are not commitments.
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* Canadian production and export projections were provided by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and U.S. production and export projections were provided by the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service.